Fantasy football rankings 2026: Busts and riskiest picks by simulation that called McLaurin's down year — SkimNews
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- SportsLine's model simulated the 2026 NFL season 10,000 times and released Fantasy football rankings calling out busts, sleepers, and breakouts ahead of drafts opening this week.
- The model correctly predicted Terry McLaurin would fall short of his top-50 ADP in 2025 — he finished with career lows of 582 receiving yards and 3 TDs after a 1,100-yard, 13-TD season.
- David Montgomery (Texans, ADP pick No. 52) is flagged as a bust and ranked in the same tier as Jaylen Warren and 10th-rounder Kenneth Gainwell, with the model expecting him to split snaps with Woody Marks.
- James Cook (Bills, ADP pick No. 9 overall, 5th RB off the board) is ranked just RB No. 10 by the model, which cites a higher fumble rate, lack of elite pass-game work, and Josh Allen as a touchdown vulture.
- The model is also fading one of the first six receivers taken in early 2026 drafts, calling for him to be one of the biggest busts in the league — though the player isn't identified in this piece.
- The model's past hits include flagging A.J. Brown as a 2020 sleeper, Jonathan Taylor's monster 2021, and predicting C.J. Stroud would step back in 2024.
- CBS ADP top 12 is led by Jahmyr Gibbs (1.10), Bijan Robinson (2.08), and Ja'Marr Chase (4.01), with James Cook at No. 9 and Chase Brown at No. 10.
Why it matters: With most 2026 Fantasy drafts opening within five days, drafters paying pick No. 9 overall on James Cook or No. 52 on David Montgomery are paying 2-4 rounds of value above where the model — which correctly faded McLaurin last year — says they belong. The Cook call goes directly against consensus after two strong seasons (RB6 in 2025), so following the model means passing on a name your leaguemates won't.
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