China, Not Iran, Is Trump’s Real Foreign-Policy Debacle — SkimNews
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- Trump administration China policy has lost ground to Beijing across economy, military balance, science, technology, and geopolitical influence over 19 months, with the 2025 National Security Strategy framing China primarily in economic terms rather than as a paramount geopolitical competitor.
- Trade deficit with China has not meaningfully decreased; a Peterson Institute study found tariffs simply rerouted Chinese exports through Vietnam, Taiwan, and Mexico, imposing net costs on US manufacturers and consumers.
- Rare earths and magnets remain chokepoints the administration failed to anticipate, and when Beijing retaliated against tariffs by targeting US soybean and animal product exports, Trump was forced into a truce.
- October 2025 Busan agreement saw Trump abandon a threatened additional 100% tariff on Chinese imports in exchange for a fragile truce on rare earths, soybeans, fentanyl, and export controls—signaling the limits of US economic leverage.
- China's AI sector has narrowed the gap with the US, with Chinese large language models rivaling or exceeding US models at a fraction of the cost; the administration failed to sustain Biden-era semiconductor export controls, allowing Chinese firms to train models on banned chips.
- Asia-Pacific military posture has weakened as the Iran war diverted the USS George Washington carrier from Japan to the Middle East, leaving the Western Pacific without a US aircraft carrier.
- China is on track to produce nearly twice as many STEM Ph.D.s annually as the US, files more patents, and is consolidating global dominance in batteries, solar, and EVs while Washington dismantles clean-energy support and deters talent through punitive immigration rules.
Why it matters: With Xi Jinping's September 24 Washington visit ahead, the US enters talks having already abandoned its 100% tariff threat at the Busan deal. Beijing has demonstrated leverage by rerouting trade, narrowing the AI gap, and forcing the USS George Washington's redeployment from Japan to the Middle East, while the US cedes compounding long-term advantage in STEM pipelines and clean energy.
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