Trump Weighs Iran Strike Bigger Than Operation Epic Fury
Get the Geopolitics newsletter
Daily geopolitics — wars, elections, sanctions, the diplomatic moves that move markets. Free.
- Trump told Axios he is 'close' to deciding on a 'massive attack' against Iran 'bigger than ever before,' with operations 'all set' — though two U.S. officials confirmed no order has been issued and no deadline has been set.
- The U.S. has escalated strikes over 12 days to stop Iranian attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, where oil prices have now eclipsed $100/barrel.
- Houthi rebels — Iran-backed in Yemen — have begun attacking Saudi ships in the Red Sea, and Trump warned on Truth Social that any new Houthi fire will trigger 'major military punishment' against both the Houthis and Iran.
- Trump said Israel 'would join in two minutes if I ask them to' but warned Iran would retaliate against Israel, calling Israeli involvement 'consequences' — while also saying 'we don't need anybody' to launch a new operation.
- Trump said the Iranians 'want to negotiate' but 'haven't received enough pain yet,' while two regional sources said Iran has rejected the latest mediation proposal: 'We are trying, but the Iranians are not being helpful.'
- A return to all-out war is highly unpopular in the U.S., and Trump is still weighing the option of restarting major combat operations rather than committing to it.
Why it matters: Trump is publicly telegraphing the largest U.S. strike package on Iran yet while no actual order has been issued — turning the escalation posture itself into a pressure tactic on Tehran, with $100+/barrel oil and expanding Red Sea attacks showing the economic and military costs are already being paid before any 'massive attack' begins.
