Bitcoin's Next Move: Bullish Bets Run Up Against a Historical Wall — SkimNews
Get the Finance newsletter
Daily finance — markets, central banks, M&A, the prints that move money. Free.
- Bitcoin gained nearly 25% in August—its best August since 2017—closing back above its 50-month moving average for the first time since crypto winter began, briefly topping $81,000 before slipping under $78,000.
- The rally traces to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's August 19 decision to double long-end bond buybacks, a liquidity move that hammered yields and triggered a crypto short squeeze; the buyback program runs through the November 4 refunding quarter.
- Fed Chair Kevin Warsh used his first Jackson Hole address to call inflation "more concerning" than the labor market, cooling the rally and reviving rate-hike talk ahead of the September 15-16 Fed meeting.
- On Myriad Markets, traders price a 77% chance BTC hits $84,000 before dumping to $55,000, though the 50/200-day EMA crossover remains bearish and daily RSI sits at 66.1, edging toward overbought.
- September has been Bitcoin's weakest calendar month since 2013, with price now stalling under a sticky resistance zone near $82,500 despite continued spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and advancing SEC crypto rulemaking.
Why it matters: The 25% August rally reclaimed Bitcoin's 50-month moving average for the first time in roughly 10 months, a structural break trend-following capital typically chases—but with September historically Bitcoin's weakest month and the 50/200-day EMA still in bearish crossover, that capital has not yet confirmed the breakout.
Ask SkimNews
