Are the 49ers off to an all-time great start? Here's what history tells us about four early NFL trends — SkimNews
Get the Sports newsletter
Daily sports — scores, transfers, the storylines from the leagues you actually follow. Free.
- San Francisco 49ers rank 11th-best by DVOA through four games since 1977, with the third-best passing offense in that span behind the 1998 Broncos (Elway) and 1999 Washington (Johnson)
- The previous 20 best DVOA teams through four games won nine Super Bowls and lost three, but the 49ers are already without Nick Bosa (calf), Alfred Collins (knee), and four wide receivers on injured reserve, with Mike Evans limited by a rib injury
- The Minnesota Vikings sit 10th in total DVOA despite their 4-0 record — 31st in offensive DVOA and 2nd in defensive DVOA — making them the eighth-worst 4-0 team by DVOA since 2000
- The Houston Texans (0-4, 17th in DVOA) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-4, 18th in DVOA) are the third and fourth best 0-4 or 0-3-1 teams since 1977, with FPI playoff odds of 16% and 5% respectively
- Only the 1992 Chargers have ever made the playoffs after starting 0-4, while five of the twelve worst 4-0 teams since 2000 still reached the Super Bowl — including the 2015 Broncos, a comp for this year's Vikings
Why it matters: The 49ers' historic DVOA pace places them alongside teams that won nine of the last available Super Bowls, but their injury pileup under Shanahan and Lynch is a documented annual pattern that could derail the trajectory. Meanwhile, Minnesota's 4-0 record masks a 31st-ranked offense that DVOA suggests is more likely to stay bad than its 2nd-ranked defense is to stay great.
Ask SkimNews
