Solar generation expected to grow 21% this year, 18% in 2027: EIA — SkimNews
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- Solar generation is forecast to grow 21% in 2026 and 18% in 2027 as utility-scale solar capacity continues being added to the grid, per the EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook.
- U.S. electricity consumption is expected to rise 2% in both 2026 and 2027 to a record 4,211 billion kWh, driven by data center development and increased manufacturing demand.
- The commercial sector will account for 63% of the increase in total electricity sales in 2026 (a 3.3% rise) and 56% in 2027 (a 2.7% rise), making it the dominant driver of new demand.
- Coal generation is forecast to decline 8% in 2026 and 6% in 2027, while natural gas grows 2% and 1% respectively, and wind generation rises 7% and 5%.
- The PJM Interconnection market will account for nearly 45% of total U.S. generation growth, with natural gas leading the increase in 2026 and natural gas, coal, and wind driving it in 2027.
- ERCOT and MISO will see the largest solar capacity additions — 18 BkWh in ERCOT this year and 20 BkWh in 2027, with MISO adding 13 BkWh and 11 BkWh respectively.
- Domestic coal demand from the electric power sector is forecast to decline 8% in 2026 and 6% in 2027 as natural gas and renewables expand in the Northwest and MISO regions.
Why it matters: The commercial sector — driven by data centers and manufacturing — accounts for 63% of new electricity sales growth in 2026, while solar surges 21% and coal declines 8%. The grid is simultaneously expanding to record demand and shifting generation mix, with PJM alone representing 45% of total generation growth that utilities must accommodate.
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