Solar generation expected to grow 21% this year, 18% in 2027: EIA — SkimNews
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- EIA forecasts U.S. solar generation will grow 21% in 2026 and 18% in 2027, with data center development and increased manufacturing driving electricity demand to record levels.
- Total U.S. electricity consumption is projected to climb 2% in both 2026 and 2027, reaching 4,211 billion kWh by 2027 according to EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook.
- The commercial sector will drive 63% of new electricity sales in 2026 and 56% in 2027, with commercial sales rising 3.3% and 2.7% respectively.
- Coal generation is forecast to fall 8% in 2026 and 6% in 2027, even as natural gas generation still expands 2% and 1% over the same period.
- Wind generation grows 7% in 2026 and 5% in 2027, trailing solar's pace as utility-scale renewables are added to the grid.
- The PJM Interconnection market accounts for nearly 45% of all expected U.S. generation growth, while solar additions concentrate in ERCOT (+18 BkWh in 2026, +20 BkWh in 2027) and MISO (+13 BkWh in 2026, +11 BkWh in 2027).
Why it matters: Data center-fueled commercial demand now drives 63% of new U.S. electricity sales, funneling nearly 45% of total generation growth into the PJM market where grid operators are scrambling. Coal loses 8% of demand this year while natural gas still grows — the solar narrative is real, but gas isn't ceding ground yet.
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