Tom Fornelli's College Football Power Ratings: Big Ten hype gives way to hard truths — SkimNews
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- Big Ten teams are 36-44-2 against the spread when favored this year, a .450 winning percentage that ranks second-worst among conferences and only narrowly ahead of the American at .449.
- Big Ten favorites miss covering by an average of 1.82 points per game, compared with .44 for the American, the next-worst conference.
- Big Ten favorites are an outlier even as favorites across all leagues cover 52.6% of the time by an average of 1.16 points.
- Big Ten had seven teams in the preseason AP Top 25; Ohio State has met expectations, while Oregon, Indiana, USC, Michigan, Washington and Penn State are a combined 8-28 ATS and miss by 7.76 points per game.
- Oregon stumbled out of the gate, with Dante Moore sidelined for a month exacerbating the poor start; Ohio State is also dealing with an injury to its starting quarterback.
- Big Ten won three straight national titles with three different teams, and many projected Oregon to become the fourth, but the league struggled mightily this season.
Why it matters: Big Ten favorites are 36-44-2 ATS, with the conference’s six other preseason top-20 teams averaging a 7.76-point miss. For bettors, that is a below-break-even ledger; for power raters, it makes power ratings harder to produce even as favorites elsewhere cover 52.6% of the time.
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