Traders shorted $920M oil before Iran peace report
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- Traders opened nearly $920 million in crude oil short positions at 3:40 AM ET, roughly an hour before Axios reported the U.S. and Iran were close to a memorandum of understanding to end the war
- The Kobeissi Letter analyzed the timing of the oil trades, noting the 10,000-contract short move was unusually large for pre-market hours and preceded a 12% drop in oil prices
- Brent and WTI oil fell 11.9% and over 13% respectively, with prices still down about 7% by mid-morning, reflecting market optimism over de-escalation
- Marko Kolanovic commented on the price swing, calling the markets 'blatantly manipulated' amid the suspiciously timed trading activity
- Eric Nuttall warned energy investors that day-to-day volatility may be 'intentionally induced for nefarious reasons,' urging focus on long-term outlooks
- Ebrahim Rezaei, Iranian spokesperson for the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, dismissed the Axios report as an 'Americans' wish list' not reflecting actual negotiation progress
Why it matters: The $920 million short trade gained ~$125 million as oil dropped over 12%, suggesting foreknowledge may have been exploited. With Iranian officials denying a breakthrough, the market move appears disconnected from verified developments, raising concerns about information asymmetry or manipulation ahead of major geopolitical news.
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