Fatal October flaws: Why each MLB contender's biggest weakness will -- or won't -- sink it — SkimNews
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- Milwaukee Brewers clinched their fourth straight NL Central title but rank 28th in MLB in home runs, with just 32.6% of runs scored via the long ball—the lowest rate in the majors versus a 40.6% league average—though they've slugged much better since June (0.71 to 1.10 HRs per game).
- Los Angeles Dodgers rank just 16th in runs since July 1 due to injuries to Shohei Ohtani (knee, won't return until five games remain), Freddie Freeman (knee), Andy Pages (fractured hand) and Will Smith (out all of July and August), making this the most flawed Dodgers squad of their long postseason run.
- Atlanta Braves went 2-8 across their last three postseason series (2022-2024) while hitting just .186, and the 2026 roster retains essentially that same core—though Matt Olson has 39 home runs, the team ranks 28th in walk rate and 29th in chase rate, making them exploitable by good pitching.
- Chicago Cubs enter the postseason with a closer crisis: Jacob Webb has blown four consecutive save opportunities, and alternatives Ryan Zeferjahn (5.65 ERA with Chicago), Ryan Rolison (OPS over .900 against right-handed batters), and Daniel Palencia (not trusted in high-leverage spots) all carry significant flaws.
- Philadelphia Phillies are without Jesus Luzardo due to shoulder inflammation despite his 1.08 ERA over his last seven starts, pushing Aaron Nola into a higher role and potentially putting rookie Andrew Painter in the rotation; the team still must clinch a spot with series against the Brewers and Rays remaining.
- San Diego Padres starters rank 29th in strikeout rate since August 1, with trade-deadline pickups Casey Mize (5.97 ERA, 22 strikeouts in 37⅔ innings) and Robbie Ray (5.35 ERA, 24 walks in 33⅔ innings) both struggling badly, though ace Michael King and a strong bullpen provide cover.
Why it matters: Every NL contender enters October with a specific, exploitable weakness—the Brewers' power drought (historically, the team with the fewest regular-season homers has gone 17-29 in the past 10 postseasons), the Dodgers' injury-depleted lineup, the Cubs' ninth-inning uncertainty, and the Phillies' missing co-ace—and which flaw proves fatal will shape who reaches the World Series.
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