MLB Contenders' Fatal October Flaws, Team by Team — SkimNews
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- Milwaukee Brewers have clinched their fourth straight NL Central title but rank tied for 28th in MLB in home runs, with just 32.6% of runs scored via the long ball — the lowest mark in baseball versus a 40.6% league average, and over the past 10 postseasons the team with fewest regular-season homers has gone 17-29 without reaching a World Series.
- Los Angeles Dodgers rank tied for 16th in runs since July 1, with Shohei Ohtani's knee injury keeping him out of pitching for the rest of the season, Freddie Freeman playing through a sore knee, Andy Pages sidelined by a fractured hand and Will Smith sitting out July and August — making this, per the analysis, "the most flawed Dodgers team during this long run of postseason appearances."
- Atlanta Braves hit just .186 with 2.5 runs per game across three postseason exits from 2022-2024 (a 2-8 record), and the 2026 squad — built around largely the same core plus Drake Baldwin — ranks 28th in walk rate and 29th in chase rate, with aggressive swingers like Michael Harris II, Ozzie Albies and Mauricio Dubon.
- Chicago Cubs enter October with closer Jacob Webb having blown four consecutive save opportunities; backup options include Ryan Zeferjahn (4.09 ERA, 5.65 with Chicago, walks too many) and last year's closer Daniel Palencia, who hasn't been trusted in high-leverage spots since returning from the injured list.
- Philadelphia Phillies are without Jesus Luzardo (shoulder inflammation, no return timetable) despite his 1.08 ERA over his past seven starts, which could push Aaron Nola into a potential third playoff game and rookie Andrew Painter into a four-man rotation.
- San Diego Padres rank 29th in strikeout rate since Aug. 1, with trade-deadline additions Casey Mize (5.97 ERA, 9 homers allowed in 37⅔ innings) and Robbie Ray (5.35 ERA, 24 walks in 33⅔ innings) both struggling badly enough that Mize "doesn't even project as a viable option for the playoffs right now."
Why it matters: The article's own historical data quantifies why these flaws bite in October: teams with the fewest regular-season home runs have gone 17-29 in recent postseasons without reaching a World Series, and the Braves' chronic .186 postseason mark shows how repeat October failures can follow a core. For contenders like the Dodgers (Freeman, Ohtani, Pages all compromised) and the Cubs (no reliable closer), even 100-win rosters face hard ceilings unless pitching or timely hitting papers over the gaps.
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