MLB Playoff Contenders' Fatal Flaws: Who Can Survive October — SkimNews
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- Milwaukee Brewers have clinched their fourth straight NL Central title and could reach 100 wins despite ranking tied for 28th in MLB in home runs, with only 32.6% of their runs scored via the long ball (MLB average 40.6%); over the past 10 postseasons (excluding 2020), the team with the fewest regular-season homers went 17-29 and never reached a World Series.
- Los Angeles Dodgers rank just tied for 16th in runs scored since July 1 due to injuries to Shohei Ohtani (knee, won't pitch again this season), Freddie Freeman (knee), Andy Pages (fractured hand), and Will Smith (sat out July and August), leaving Miguel Rojas and Enrique Hernández likely to fill postseason roles again behind a rotation of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tarik Skubal, Blake Snell, and Tyler Glasnow.
- Atlanta Braves went 2-8 across the 2022-2024 postseasons while hitting just .186 and averaging 2.5 runs per game, and the current roster is essentially the same group of hitters who ranked 28th in walk rate and 29th in chase rate despite Matt Olson's 39 home runs.
- Chicago Cubs enter October with journeyman closer Jacob Webb leading the team at just nine saves after blowing four consecutive save chances, leaving manager Craig Counsell to weigh options Ryan Zeferjahn (4.09 ERA, 5.65 with Chicago), Ryan Rolison (.900-plus OPS vs. right-handers), and last year's closer Daniel Palencia.
- Philadelphia Phillies are hopeful Jesus Luzardo can return from shoulder inflammation after posting a 1.08 ERA over his past seven starts, but they likely must survive at least the wild-card round without him — while still needing to clinch a playoff spot in final-week series against the Brewers and Rays.
- San Diego Padres rank 29th in rotation strikeout rate since August 1, with trade-deadline pickups Casey Mize (5.97 ERA, 9 HRs in 37⅔ innings) and Robbie Ray (5.35 ERA, 24 walks in 33⅔ innings) both struggling badly enough that Mize doesn't currently project as a viable playoff option.
Why it matters: The Brewers' lack of power isn't just a regular-season curiosity — over the past 10 postseasons, low-HR teams went 17-29 with zero World Series trips, so Milwaukee's 28th-ranked homer total becomes an October ceiling even with likely Cy Young winner Jacob Misiorowski on the mound. Meanwhile, the Cubs and Dodgers both enter with closer questions, and the Phillies' playoff hopes hinge on Luzardo's shoulder timeline and finishing strong against Milwaukee and Tampa Bay.
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