Options Traders Bet Big on Netflix Earnings Rebound
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- Call volumes doubled puts in back-to-back sessions Friday and Monday, with nearly three times as many calls bought versus puts by midday Monday, according to ThinkOrSwim data heading into Netflix's Thursday earnings.
- Netflix stock has declined after each of its last four earnings reports and is down almost 20% year-to-date, despite rallying three times in the three reports preceding that streak.
- Shares at roughly $75 sit near where Netflix ended its Warner Bros. Discovery pursuit in February — and near the late-2021 level that preceded an 80% selloff before the stock recovered to $134 last June.
- Todd Gordon, founder and CIO at Inside Edge Capital, flagged $70 as a critical technical support level, noting Netflix is testing its rising 200-week moving average and a hold there could warrant re-entering the stock.
- Nielsen data shows Netflix's share of TV viewership hit its lowest level in over a year, with LightShed Partners analyst Rich Greenfield citing the absence of a "breakout hit" and attributing some viewership decline to lower-engagement ad-supported users.
- The most actively traded contract Monday was the 75-strike put expiring Friday — a single large seller collected nearly $150,000 by selling 500 of those puts, per SpotGamma, with roughly 15,000 of 20,000 transactions appearing to be sales.
- Options pricing implies a 7.6% post-earnings swing versus the past year's 7.4% average realized move, according to Cboe LiveVol.
Why it matters: If the $70 technical support level breaks, Netflix's streak of four consecutive post-earnings selloffs likely extends; if it holds, the unusually bullish options positioning could amplify a relief rally. With Nielsen viewership at a one-year low and no breakout hit identified by analysts, the Thursday print will either vindicate the bullish bets or add a fifth selloff to the streak.
