Community Shield Winners Rarely Win the Premier League
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- Only 8 of 34 Community Shield winners since the Premier League began in 1992-93 have gone on to win the league that season, with Manchester City in 2019 being the most recent club to manage the feat.
- Shield losers have actually won more league titles than winners since 1992, claiming 10 championships — including Manchester City three years running from 2021 to 2023.
- In 47% of seasons (16 of 34), the eventual Premier League champions were not even involved in the Community Shield, meaning the fixture failed to feature either team that would lift the title.
- Previous Premier League winners have won the Shield 18 of 34 times (53%), but FA Cup winners have dominated recently, taking 8 of the past 12 — and on three occasions neither the league nor cup winners lifted the Shield.
- Community Shield goalscorers' fortunes vary wildly: Cole Palmer netted in 2023 and went on to score 22 Premier League goals for Chelsea, while Erling Haaland failed to score on his Shield debut but bagged 52 goals that season.
- Arsenal face Manchester City at Cardiff's Principality Stadium on Sunday, with the league runners-up and FA Cup winners meeting not just for silverware but to test whether the Shield's poor recent record as a title predictor will continue.
Why it matters: For Arsenal and Manchester City, Sunday's match is a prestige fixture but not a meaningful preview of the Premier League campaign ahead — the data shows the Shield winner has gone on to win the league only once in the past 15 years, and the losing team has historically taken more titles than the winners since 1992 (10 to 8). Coaches and fans should treat it as a marquee friendly, not a form guide.
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