Russia, Ukraine Locked in Escalating Air Strike Cycle
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- Russia fired its largest air attacks of the war on May 13-14, followed by two more massive strikes in the following weeks, while its ground territorial gains have slowed and in some areas been reversed by Ukrainian counter-attacks.
- Ukraine has answered with increasingly effective deep strikes into Russian territory, hitting the Moscow region after the first May attack and striking St. Petersburg on June 3, just before Putin's St. Petersburg International Economic Forum was set to begin.
- Ukraine has also intensified strikes on Crimea and critical Russian supply lines to the peninsula, which Moscow has illegally occupied since 2014.
- Russia's heavier reliance on harder-to-intercept missiles exploits Ukraine's depleted anti-missile defense stocks, worsened by reduced US support since Donald Trump's January 2025 return to the White House and the recent diversion of US interceptors to the Middle East war effort.
- The lifting of Hungary's veto on €40 billion in EU military reimbursements is likely to free additional funds for Ukrainian air defense systems, as defense cooperation between Ukraine and the EU simultaneously improves.
- Zelensky stated that Ukraine's recent strikes on Russia put the country on equal footing with Moscow in negotiations, hinting at Kyiv's willingness to seek an end to the war, though the authors note it may take more retaliation cycles before the Kremlin reaches a similar conclusion.
Why it matters: Russia is ruthlessly exploiting a narrow window in which Ukraine's anti-missile stockpiles are at their weakest — a vulnerability created by reduced US aid and interceptor diversions to the Middle East — but the €40 billion in freed EU reimbursements could materially restore Kyiv's air defense capacity, while the authors warn Moscow's current strike pace is beyond sustainable and its strategic war goals remain unachievable.
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