2026 Masters Odds: Model's Scheffler, McIlroy Picks
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- SportsLine's model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has nailed 16 majors entering the weekend, including the 2025 Masters (its fourth straight), the 2025 PGA Championship, and the 2025 Open Championship, after simulating the 2026 Masters 10,000 times.
- Scottie Scheffler opens as the +550 favorite and a two-time Masters winner (2022, 2024), but he hasn't competed since mid-March due to the birth of his second child—the first time in his career he's had zero PGA Tour starts between the Players and the Masters.
- Jon Rahm (+1000) is the 2023 Masters champion and earned a 10.5% model win probability with a 41.3% top-5 chance; he has finished top 10 at Augusta five times since 2018 and hasn't placed worse than fifth in any event this season.
- Rory McIlroy (+1300) is chasing back-to-back green jackets but hasn't won in 14 PGA Tour starts since completing the career Grand Slam, though he ranks fourth in strokes gained:total and leads the tour in both SG:tee-to-green and SG:off-the-tee.
- Bryson DeChambeau (+1000), Matt Fitzpatrick (+2200), and Cameron Young (+2200) all bring hot recent form—DeChambeau won his last two LIV Golf events, Fitzpatrick has a win and a runner-up in his last two starts, and Young has a victory plus a third-place finish.
- The model flags that since Tiger Woods repeated in 2001-02, only three defending Masters champions have finished better than 10th in their title defense, and the model is also targeting two longshots at +4000 or greater, including one around +8000.
Why it matters: Scheffler's six-week layoff creates the most untested Masters favorite in years, while McIlroy's 14-start winless drought after his career Grand Slam means both co-favorites carry real question marks heading into Thursday. The model's 10.5% win probability for Rahm, combined with his top-10 Augusta history, frames the real betting question as elite-but-rusty versus in-form-but-unproven at Augusta.
