Meta's 5GW Cloud Grab Fuels CoreWeave Selloff
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- Meta contracted over 5GW of capacity across Cloud & Colo in the first six months of 2026 and has signed nearly 10GW of compute deals since early 2024, with the bulk now flowing through third parties like CoreWeave and Nebius.
- Meta is in final talks with Anthropic to access private instances of Claude, aiming to launch a token-as-a-service endpoint and eventually serve both Anthropic and OpenAI models externally alongside Bedrock, Foundry, and Vertex.
- Two of Meta's largest campuses alone represent 2.5GW of capacity under construction, contradicting the 'only 5GW under construction in the US' headlines SemiAnalysis calls laughable.
- Meta believes it can scale its Ads recommendation systems by more than 10x in complexity, requiring new inference and training compute alongside more generative targeted ads.
- SpaceX's Anthropic and Google deals generate 3x and 4x the revenue per MW that peers charge respectively — a premium SemiAnalysis expects Meta to chase, where a couple hundred MWs could drive over $10B in yearly revenue.
- The Google–SpaceX deal carries a three-year term with mutual 90-day cancellation, effectively a 3-month rolling contract — a structure SemiAnalysis says few companies outside the top hyperscalers can finance.
- SemiAnalysis pushes back on both the 'Meta becomes a Neocloud' narrative and the resulting CoreWeave and Nebius selloff, arguing Meta's 2027 capex will be 'shockingly high' as the company hunts high-margin alternatives for its compute.
Why it matters: SemiAnalysis argues Meta will be a major RPO growth driver for CoreWeave and Nebius despite the bond selloff — the company contracted 5GW in six months and is finalizing a Bedrock-style Anthropic arrangement that would slot it into the hyperscaler AI services stack. If SemiAnalysis is right, the market is paying CoreWeave and Nebius to fund their own largest future customer.
