Trump says he will visit India as frosty relationship with Modi thaws
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- Trump pledged a future visit to India during a G7 bilateral with Modi in France, saying the two countries were 'close to agreeing a trade deal'
- Trump offered a defense commitment referencing Modi: 'If anybody attacks that man, we're going to be there,' then hedged — 'Now, if there's a new leader, I'm not sure about it'
- Modi raised the safety of Indian sailors in the Strait of Hormuz with Trump, after three Indian sailors were killed in a US strike on a tanker in the Gulf of Oman last week that the US said was violating its blockade on Iranian ports
- Trade deal talks were set back by new US import taxes targeting countries judged insufficient on forced labour, including India; officials are set to meet in Delhi next week for what India's commerce secretary called the 'final touches'
- India imports about 90% of its oil and has been badly hit by the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil and gas supplies normally flow
- Tariff trajectory: US duties on some Indian goods hit 50%, dropped to 18% after a February interim deal, and now sit at 10% after the US Supreme Court struck down many of Trump's tariffs as 'illegal'
- Delhi summoned a senior US diplomat twice last week after the sailor killings and strikes on other tankers carrying Indian crew, though Modi has been criticized at home for not directly condemning the US actions
Why it matters: The 'thaw' framing obscures a relationship being repaired under duress: India depends on 90% imported oil flowing through a strait the US is blockading, and Delhi summoned a US diplomat twice after the sailor killings. The trade deal officials finalize next week will lock in terms for two large economies whose alignment is now shaped by an active Middle East conflict and competing courtship of Pakistan.
