Iran Still Controls Strait of Hormuz, Shippers Wait
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- Iran continues to exercise de-facto control over the Strait of Hormuz, requiring ship transits to seek permission from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, according to Lloyd’s List editor Richard Meade.
- Rystad Energy reported only 10 vessel exits through the strait on the first day after ceasefire, with four likely being 'dark' Iranian tankers, and expects no near-term normalization of shipping flows.
- Indian shipowners are awaiting clearance from the Indian government before moving 25+ India-bound ships, citing safety risks and sharply higher war risk premiums that make transit a commercial as well as operational decision.
- Iranian Ambassador to China Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli said Iran is considering imposing a transit fee for the Strait of Hormuz and will provide the 'main safety guarantee' for passage, signaling a shift from free to controlled access.
- Jakob Larsen of Bimco warned that departing the Persian Gulf without coordination with both the U.S. and Iran entails heightened risk, as Iran retains antiship missiles, drones, fast attack craft, and mines capable of disrupting shipping.
- Approximately 23,000 Indian seafarers were stranded in the Persian Gulf region three weeks into the war, including 658 on Indian-flagged vessels, highlighting the human toll of the disrupted maritime corridor.
Why it matters: Over 25 India-bound ships remain immobilized due to unresolved authority over the Strait of Hormuz, creating a bottleneck for energy imports and raising costs for Indian importers and insurers. With Iran asserting control and demanding coordination, shipping firms face prolonged delays and elevated war risk premiums, turning a geopolitical standoff into a sustained commercial crisis.
