Bitcoin is having a tough year. Traders are betting it's going to get worse
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- Bitcoin futures tumbled to as low as $58,995 Thursday, the lowest price since October 2024, deepening the drawdown from last year's high to about 52%.
- Bitcoin has wrestled with the $60,000 support level all year — bouncing in February, testing it again in the first two weeks of June, then briefly popping above $67,000.
- IBIT options traders went all-in on puts: of nearly 1.1 million contracts traded Thursday (almost double the 30-day average), 275,000 were puts versus under 129,000 calls.
- IBIT options activity skewed heavily bearish — $144 million of $187 million in total premium was in puts, and 19 of the top 20 most-traded contracts were puts, led by the $32.5 strike put expiring Friday, which pays off with another 4.5% slide.
- IBIT's July 31 expiry prices in roughly a 48% chance the ETF falls below $30.5 (a further 10% drop) by then, while implied volatility of 53 implies market-makers expect ~3% daily moves.
- Strategy saw 505,000 puts and 403,000 calls trade Thursday, with traders buying 83,000 puts, selling 72,000 calls, and buying nearly 58,000 calls.
Why it matters: The extreme put skew in IBIT — $144 million of $187 million in options premium, with 19 of the top 20 contracts betting on declines — shows the options market treating this as the start of a deeper slide rather than a routine dip. The most popular contract, a $32.5 strike put expiring Friday, needs just 4.5% to pay off, quantifying how cheaply traders can buy downside. For Bitcoin holders already sitting on a 52% drawdown, the positioning signals the market expects the bleeding to continue into late July.
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