Madigan Leads Tight Oscar Supporting Actress Race
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- Amy Madigan, 75, has swept most season precursors for her role in Zach Cregger's horror film 'Weapons,' winning both the Critics Choice and SAG Awards en route to her second Oscar nomination 40 years after her first for 'Twice in a Lifetime.'
- Madigan faces two notable hurdles: she was snubbed for a BAFTA nomination in a six-nominee field — a historically significant predictor — and she is 'Weapons'' sole nominee, a category only five actors have won in the past 25 years.
- Teyana Taylor is the only nominee to sweep all four major televised precursors, anchored by her Golden Globe win for 'One Battle After Another,' positioning her as the strongest threat to Madigan.
- Wunmi Mosaku claimed a BAFTA for Ryan Coogler's 'Sinners,' adding a second best-picture frontrunner contender to a race where both Taylor and Mosaku hail from the category's leading films.
- A win for either Taylor or Mosaku would mark three consecutive Best Supporting Actress victories for Black women, following Da'Vine Joy Randolph ('The Holdovers') and Zoe Saldaña ('Emilia Pérez') — a first in the Academy's 98-year history.
- If Madigan prevails, she would become the second-oldest winner in the category at 75, trailing only Peggy Ashcroft, who was 77 when she won for 'A Passage to India' (1984), and surpassing Josephine Hull, 74, for 'Harvey' (1950).
- The 98th Oscars are set for Sunday, March 15, hosted by Conan O'Brien, with 'Sentimental Value' nominees Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas considered unlikely to unseat the top three contenders.
Why it matters: Madigan's path to a historic win is complicated by the fact that no sole-nominee supporting actress has won since Penélope Cruz in 2008, and her BAFTA miss is a historically strong negative predictor — meaning the Academy could either crown the oldest winner in decades or deliver a first-ever three-peat for Black women in the same category, depending on which signal voters trusted more.
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