S&P 500 Rises 1% as Oil Retreats From $100
SkimNews Take
With oil holding $100 alongside a three-week equity slide, the asymmetry favors further downside — sustained energy costs compress margins in upcoming earnings reports in ways the current slight futures optimism may not yet reflect.
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- U.S. equities rose broadly on Monday, with the S&P 500 gaining 1.01% to 6,699.38, the Dow adding 387.94 points (0.83%) to 46,946.41, and the Nasdaq climbing 1.22% to 22,374.18.
- Oil prices pulled back sharply after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC the U.S. is allowing Iranian tankers through the Strait of Hormuz; WTI fell 5.28% to $93.50/barrel and Brent settled at $100.21/barrel, having traded above $100 overnight.
- Trump told reporters that some countries asked to help protect tankers in the Strait are "less than enthusiastic," and that one or two nations the U.S. has protected for 40 years "will not" participate in the escort coalition.
- The S&P 500 had closed at its lowest level of the year on Friday, capping its third straight losing week, though it remains just over 4% below its all-time high set earlier in 2026.
- Meta shares rose more than 2% on a Reuters report — which Meta called "speculative" — that the company plans to lay off more than 20% of its workforce to offset AI spending; Nvidia gained more than 1% as its GTC AI conference kicked off.
- Energy analysts told CNBC crude could climb to $200/barrel if the Middle East crisis drags on, noting that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 20% of global oil and gas typically passes — has been effectively halted since the war began.
- The Monday rebound came on below-average trading volume on both the NYSE and Nasdaq, a signal bulls typically watch to confirm conviction behind a move.
Why it matters: The relief rally hinges entirely on the Strait of Hormuz reopening, and Trump's own comments revealed the escort coalition isn't actually locked in — with one or two longtime U.S. protectorates declining to join. Energy analysts told CNBC oil could reach $200/barrel if the crisis drags on, putting the S&P 500's remaining 4% cushion below its all-time high directly at risk.
