China Holds the Key to Containing the Iran War
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- China is Iran's largest oil customer, purchasing roughly 520 million barrels of crude in 2025 — about 90 percent of Iran's oil exports and one-third of its total trade — giving Beijing leverage few other powers can match.
- China imports around 5 million barrels of crude oil per day through the Strait of Hormuz, roughly one-third of all strait transit, making any sustained disruption a direct threat to Chinese energy security.
- Iran has attacked shipping, effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, and struck energy facilities across the Gulf, and retains the option of escalating to desalination plants, electricity systems, and telecommunications to paralyze Gulf states.
- The Trump administration entered the conflict without a clear long-term strategy, the source argues, initially pursuing something like the low-cost regime-weakening approach U.S. officials believe worked with the seizure of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela.
- Israel and Iran both still see reasons to continue fighting — Israel believes sustained military pressure with U.S. backing could significantly degrade Iran's capabilities, while Tehran views mere regime survival as a form of restored deterrence.
- The Gulf Cooperation Council could serve as a coordinating body for parallel U.S.-China de-escalation diplomacy, with a precedent in the 2008 multinational anti-piracy effort around the Horn of Africa.
- Trump is scheduled to arrive in Beijing later this month, and the article argues the agenda should extend beyond tariffs and trade to coordinating containment of the Iran conflict.
Why it matters: With China buying roughly 90 percent of Iran's oil and 5 million barrels of Chinese daily imports transiting the Strait of Hormuz, Beijing has more direct economic leverage over Tehran than any other major power — and Iran has already demonstrated it can attack shipping, Gulf energy facilities, and potentially desalination and power systems, meaning a wider war would hit Chinese energy supplies before almost anyone else's.
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