Oil Surges as Iraq Declares Force Majeure on Foreign Fields
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- Iraq declared force majeure on all oil fields operated by foreign companies (per Reuters), pushing Brent crude above $112/barrel and WTI over $98/barrel by Friday's close and accelerating stock selling into the bell.
- Fed rate-cut expectations collapsed over the past month: April cut odds fell from 17% to 10%, and the chance of no cuts this year rose to 73%, per the CME FedWatch tool, as stagnation fears from higher oil prices and the Iran conflict took hold.
- University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey, out Friday, will give the first fuller read on the Iran war's impact — half of the prior survey was collected before the conflict began, and consumer spending drives roughly two-thirds of U.S. GDP.
- S&P Global's CERAWeek runs Monday through Friday, convening government and industry leaders on energy, climate, and geopolitics, with the Iran war and surging AI data-center energy demand as the two anchor topics.
- KB Home is the week's marquee earnings release, with investors focused on management's commentary on housing demand while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and energy prices elevated.
- Carnival, Winnebago, and Designer Brands report alongside initial jobless claims (Thursday) and the productivity and unit labor costs report (Tuesday), adding consumer-spending and labor-market color during a thin data week.
Why it matters: Fed cut odds collapsed from 94% chance of at least one cut by year-end to a 73% chance of no cuts (per CME FedWatch), while Brent above $112 — layered onto a closed Strait of Hormuz — has the article itself calling oil 'the lifeblood of the global economy' that moves inversely to corporate earnings. Friday's Michigan sentiment print delivers the first full post-war consumer read, critical because consumer spending drives roughly two-thirds of GDP.
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