Authoritarian States Reshape Global Order: Lowy Warns
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- North Korea has deployed more than 12,000 troops to fight alongside Russia's forces since 2024, and Zelenskyy warned during a recent Washington trip that Pyongyang is preparing 30,000 more.
- Russia and China signed a partnership in February 2022 just before Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, while Russia and North Korea followed with a security treaty in 2024, formalising military alignments.
- China is now the second-largest contributor to the UN regular budget and has placed its nationals in key UN leadership bodies, advancing influence while the US turns inward.
- The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation has expanded to include Iran, Belarus, India, and Pakistan, and now comprises 40% of the world's population and more than 60% of the Eurasian landmass.
- Illiberal states share techniques through programs that bring editors, producers, and media managers to Beijing and Moscow, and push ideas through forums like Hungary's Danube Club, Russia's Valdai Club, and China's Xiangshan Forum.
- Despite the coordination, Bisley argues the movement remains 'partial' — foundations are weak, interests diverge, and there is no accepted global leader, leaving fractures democracies can pressure.
- Australia must work with like-minded states to repair institutional settings, harden supply chains and critical infrastructure, and apply pressure to the illiberal coalition's cracks before it becomes entrenched.
Why it matters: The institutional gains are measurable — China's second-place UN budget contribution and the SCO's 40% global population share — and are layered on top of formalised military pacts (the Russia–China 2022 partnership, the 2024 Russia–North Korea treaty) and 12,000 North Korean troops in Ukraine, giving the illiberal coordination concrete reach. Bisley's countervailing point that interests diverge and no shared leader exists is the actionable opening for liberal democracies to exploit before the bloc consolidates.
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