Lowy: Illiberal Coalition Has Exploitable Cracks
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- North Korea has deployed more than 12,000 troops to fight alongside Russia in Ukraine since 2024, with Zelenskyy warning Pyongyang is preparing 30,000 more.
- Russia and China signed a partnership in February 2022 ahead of the Ukraine invasion that Bisley calls an "Atlantic Charter for an illiberal age," followed by a Russia-North Korea security treaty in 2024.
- The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation has expanded to include Iran, Belarus, India, and Pakistan, and now comprises 40% of the world's population and over 60% of the Eurasian landmass.
- China has become the second-largest contributor to the UN regular budget and placed its nationals in key leadership bodies across the UN system, Bisley notes.
- Illiberal states coordinate information warfare through training programs in Beijing and Moscow and forums like Hungary's Danube Club, Russia's Valdai Club, and China's Xiangshan Forum.
- Bisley argues Australia is not taking the threat seriously enough and recommends supply chain resilience, hardened critical infrastructure, and collaborative networks on internet governance standards.
- The Lowy Institute analysis finds the foundations of illiberal cooperation remain weak, with divergent interests and no accepted global leader — fissures Bisley says democracies should work to widen.
Why it matters: Australia's economy and security are anchored in the rules-based order that China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea are actively working to hollow out — operationally, not just rhetorically. North Korea's 12,000 combat troops in Ukraine and the expanded SCO's 40% share of world population show the contest has moved from speeches to battlefield and institutional reality, but the bloc's lack of a unifying leader gives Canberra and partners a narrow window to fracture it.
