BTC, ETH Traders Turn Bearish After Fed's Hawkish Shift
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- Bitcoin fell about 5% in 24 hours to $62,499 and Ethereum dropped a matching 5% to $1,682 after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting, with rates held unchanged but the tone read as hawkish
- Myriad prediction-market odds of BTC 'dumping' to $55,000 jumped to nearly 72%, up over 10% in 24 hours, while predictors simultaneously favor a subsequent bounce to $84,000
- Ethereum predictors on Myriad place roughly 83% odds on a drop to $1,500, up about 4% in 24 hours and more than 23% over the past month of trading
- ETH sits just 12% above the $1,500 downside target, while reaching the bullish $3,000 target would require a 78% rally from current levels
- Polymarket traders price an 80% chance of zero Fed rate cuts in 2026, and CME FedWatch now implies a rate hike by year-end — a sharp reversal from prior cut expectations
- Bitfire Research analysts told Decrypt that BTC at current levels is in a 'high-value entry window,' bucking the prediction-market consensus
Why it matters: The Fed's hawkish pivot under new Chair Warsh has flipped crypto sentiment: Polymarket prices 80% odds of zero rate cuts in 2026, and Myriad predictors see 72% odds BTC drops to $55,000 and 83% odds ETH falls to $1,500. At least one research firm counters that current BTC levels are a 'high-value entry window.'
