Falcons vs. Saints predictions, odds, time: Week 4 'Monday Night Football' picks from proven model — SkimNews
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- SportsLine model projects 51 combined points and is backing the Over 47.5 after 10,000 simulations of the Falcons-Saints matchup.
- New Orleans is a 1.5-point favorite with a 47.5 over/under for the 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff at the Caesars Superdome, and is 2-1 against the spread this season.
- Atlanta enters on a 35-14 Week 3 win over Green Bay, with QB Michael Penix Jr. returning to go 18-of-25 for 256 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT.
- Bijan Robinson has 66 carries for 349 yards and 2 TDs in three games, including a 29-carry, 194-yard, 2-TD performance against the Packers.
- Tyler Shough has powered the Saints' passing game with a 68.9% completion rate, 917 yards, 8 TDs and 3 INTs.
- The Saints will be without running back Travis Etienne due to a hamstring injury, per the source.
- SportsLine enters Week 4 on a 54-43 run on top-rated NFL picks since 2024 and is up over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since inception.
Why it matters: Both teams sit at 1-2 in the NFC South, turning this into an early divisional swing game where the loser falls two games under .500 — the model sees Robinson's ground attack and Shough's passing volume driving total scoring past the 47.5 line, projecting 51 combined points as the more probable outcome for bettors weighing the total.
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