Falcons vs. Packers predictions, odds, time: Week 3 'Thursday Night Football' picks from proven model — SkimNews
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- Green Bay Packers host the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday Night Football at 8:15 p.m. ET from Lambeau Field, with Green Bay installed as a 5.5-point favorite and the over/under set at 43.5.
- Atlanta Falcons enter at 0-2 after a 34-3 loss to Carolina, while Green Bay sits at 1-1 coming off a 20-17 overtime win over the Jets.
- Michael Penix Jr. will start at quarterback for Atlanta, as the Falcons look to avoid an 0-3 start.
- Jayden Reed is expected to miss Thursday's game and beyond with a neck injury, though the Packers have not confirmed a specific injury timeline for the receiver.
- Bijan Robinson powers Atlanta's rushing attack with 155 yards on 37 carries through two games, including a long of 20 yards.
- Jordan Love has thrown for 532 yards and four touchdowns with one interception through two games, anchoring Green Bay's passing game.
- The Over 43.5 has hit in seven of the last 10 head-to-head meetings between these teams and in six of Green Bay's past 10 games overall, with the model giving it value in 58% of its 10,000 simulations.
Why it matters: The model enters Week 3 on a 53-41 run on top-rated picks since 2024, lending weight to its Over 43.5 projection of 49 combined points. For bettors at NFL betting sites, that gives a specific, historically backed play (7-3 Over in last 10 Falcons-Packers meetings) with a quantified confidence level rather than a guess.
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