Falcons vs. Packers predictions, odds, time: Week 3 'Thursday Night Football' picks from proven model — SkimNews
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- Green Bay Packers open their home schedule as 6.5-point favorites over the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday Night Football, with kickoff set for 8:15 p.m. ET from Lambeau Field.
- Atlanta Falcons enter at 0-2 after a 34-3 loss to Carolina, while Green Bay is coming off a 20-17 overtime win over the New York Jets.
- The SportsLine model projects 49 combined points and backs the Over 44.5, with the Over hitting in 55% of its 10,000 simulations; the Over has gone 7-3 in the last 10 head-to-head meetings.
- Bijan Robinson leads Atlanta's rushing attack with 155 yards on 37 carries through two games, while Jordan Love has thrown for 532 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception for Green Bay.
- Michael Penix Jr. gets the start at quarterback for Atlanta, as the Falcons look to avoid falling to 0-3.
- The SportsLine model is on a 53-41 run on top-rated NFL picks dating back to 2024 and is up over $7,000 for $100 players, according to the article.
Why it matters: The model is backing the Over 44.5 despite Atlanta just getting shut out 34-3, projecting 49 combined points and hitting on the Over in 55% of simulations. For bettors weighing a 6.5-point spread in a matchup of a 1-1 home team versus an 0-2 road team, the simulation-driven Over is the specific actionable edge the article surfaces.
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