Bills vs. Lions predictions, odds, time: Week 2 'Thursday Night Football' picks by proven model — SkimNews
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- Buffalo Bills host the Detroit Lions at Highmark Stadium on Thursday Night Football at 8:15 p.m. ET, opening as 4.5-point favorites with a 54.5 over/under (up a point from the opener).
- SportsLine model simulated the matchup 10,000 times, projected 58 combined points, and found value on the Over 54.5 in 57% of simulations; the model enters Week 2 on a 53-39 run on top-rated NFL picks dating back to 2024.
- Josh Allen completed 20 of 29 passes for 334 yards and two touchdowns and added two rushing scores in the Bills' 36-31 Week 1 win over the Texans, while tight end Dalton Kincaid caught five of six targets for 130 yards with three explosive plays of 20-plus yards.
- Jahmyr Gibbs powered the Lions' 31-30 overtime win over the Saints with 29 carries for 156 yards and two touchdowns plus five catches for 30 yards, and quarterback Jared Goff went 26-of-39 for 206 yards and two scores.
- The Over has cashed in seven of the Lions' last 10 games and six of the Bills' last 10, a trend the model cites alongside the Week 1 offensive outputs from both sides.
Why it matters: For bettors using the SportsLine model, the 54.5 total looks undervalued: the model projects 58 points and finds value on the Over in 57% of simulations, supported by Gibbs' 186 scrimmage yards and Allen's 357 total yards from Week 1 — both offenses are trending toward shootouts.
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