BetMGM Bonus Code: $1,500 for Lions-Bills TNF Picks — SkimNews
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- The Buffalo Bills host the Detroit Lions on Thursday Night Football, opening their new $2.2 billion stadium in a matchup SportsLine models as a high-scoring game.
- The SportsLine Projection Model backs Over 54.5 total points and projects the Over hits in 56% of its 10,000 simulations per game, with the model up over $7,000 for $100 players since inception.
- R.J. White is backing Josh Allen Over 251.5 passing yards after Allen threw for 334 yards against the Texans in Week 1, expecting Allen to lean on DJ Moore and Dalton Kincaid against a banged-up Detroit secondary.
- Larry Hartstein backs the Bills at -5, citing a Clevanalytics stat that road teams off an overtime game playing on Thursday Night Football are 3-16 ATS, failing to cover by 7.7 points per game.
- The Lions' defense will be without safeties Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch and logged 86 plays in their 31-30 overtime win over New Orleans in Week 1, per Hartstein.
- A same-game parlay combining Bills -5, Over 54.5, and Allen Over 251.5 yards would pay +400 at BetMGM Sportsbook.
Why it matters: Detroit's defense enters Thursday missing two starting safeties and coming off an 86-play overtime game, giving Josh Allen a favorable matchup at Buffalo's new $2.2 billion stadium opener. SportsLine's model has a documented 53-39 run on top-rated NFL picks since 2024 and over $7,000 in returns for $100 players, lending track-record weight to its +400 same-game parlay recommendation.
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