SpaceX Drops 9% as Q2 AI Capex Doubles to $15.8B
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- SpaceX slid nearly 10% on Wednesday after reporting Q2 results as a public company for the first time, with AI capex ballooning to $15.8 billion in Q2 (up from $7.7 billion in Q1)
- JPMorgan's Doug Anmuth projected SpaceX capex of nearly $200 billion in both 2027 and 2028, further pressuring FCF in 2027 — though he was impressed by Musk's claim that annual revenue could hit $100 billion by year-end
- Nvidia will be the exclusive chip supplier for SpaceX's AI needs under a new partnership to design the Starmind AI-1 payload using Nvidia's Rubin GPUs and Vera CPUs, bringing 250 kW of peak satellite computing capacity to orbit
- Starlink subscribers topped 12 million at end of Q2, with the connectivity business posting adjusted EBITDA of $2.60 billion vs $2.41 billion expected, while Musk said Starlink could eventually deliver the majority of the world's internet
- A lockup expiration on Aug. 6 will free up to 20% of shares for sale — roughly triple the current tradable float — per Epistrophy Capital's Cory Johnson, adding supply pressure
- Elon Musk said SpaceX plans to attempt the first-ever tower catch of a Starship upper stage on Flight 14 using the Mechazilla arms at Starbase
Why it matters: The Aug. 6 lockup expiration threatens to triple SPCX's tradable float just as the stock absorbs its 9% drop on capex concerns. With JPMorgan projecting $200B in annual capex through 2027–2028, investors are now pricing whether SpaceX's AI and Starship investments will generate returns fast enough to absorb hundreds of millions of insider shares hitting the market.
