Cleaner Air Unmasks More Warming Than Models Predicted — SkimNews
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- Piers Forster of the University of Leeds estimated declining sulphate aerosol pollution is now adding roughly 0.05C to 0.1C of warming per decade — 'very significant,' but still less than the ~0.2C per decade being added by greenhouse gases.
- Reto Knutti and his ETH Zurich team found the underlying rate of global warming has accelerated even after stripping out the effects of El Niño and other natural fluctuations.
- Knutti's team also found that climate models which best matched recent observations — and the roughly threefold rise in Earth's energy imbalance over the past two decades — show about 25% more climate sensitivity than previous estimates.
- Under current policies already pointing to ~2.8C of warming by century's end, revised sensitivity could push the figure closer to 3.5C, according to Forster.
- Dr Paulo Ceppi of Imperial College London said warming-driven loss of low cloud cover now matters more than sulphur pollution itself in explaining the recent decline in low clouds.
- The Met Office says 2027 is 'very likely' to replace 2024 as the warmest year on record, capping the three warmest years ever measured.
- One study cited estimates falling sulphur pollution has added around half a degree to summer warming in western-central Europe since 1980, where the masking effect has fallen fastest.
Why it matters: Greenhouse gases still dominate — Forster's 0.2C/decade dwarfs the aerosol signal — but Knutti's 25% sensitivity bump implies current policy paths pointing to ~2.8C could instead deliver 3.5C. That tightens the remaining carbon budget: every additional tonne of CO2 may lock in meaningfully more warming than today's models suggest.
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