Warming Accelerated 75% Since 2015, Study Finds
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- Stefan Rahmstorf and colleagues published a study in Geophysical Research Letters finding warming accelerated to 0.35°C per decade since 2015, a 75% spike from the 0.2°C per decade rate between 1970 and 2015
- After controlling for El Niño, volcanic eruptions, and solar flares, the study projects the planet could cross the 1.5°C Paris Agreement threshold before 2030
- Rahmstorf, head of Earth system analysis at the Potsdam Institute, warned the acceleration moves humanity into 'high risk territory' for climate tipping points including a weakening Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
- Rahmstorf criticized the U.S. government for 'putting their head in the sand' on climate data, calling it 'tragic' given what the science shows
- Sofia Menemenlis of Princeton University cautioned that decade-long trends are 'provisional,' citing structural uncertainties in how global temperatures are reconstructed
- Harvard's Daniel Schrag called the study's El Niño correction 'very shaky,' arguing every El Niño is different and the analysis omits the Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Why it matters: The jump from 0.2°C to 0.35°C per decade means the 1.5°C Paris threshold could be breached before 2030, compressing the window to avert tipping points like the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Circulation or the Greenland Ice Sheet, which would cause 24 feet of sea level rise. Outside scientists, however, warn the acceleration claim rests on methodology that may not hold up.
