Natural feedbacks will warm world an extra 20 per cent this century — SkimNews
Get the Energy newsletter
Daily energy & climate — solar, EVs, oil, the policy fights and tech bets shaping the transition. Free.
- Christina Schädel at the Woodwell Climate Research Center led a study estimating that four natural ecosystem feedbacks will add 0.2°C to 0.4°C of warming by 2100, on top of the 1°C to 2°C already expected, a 20-30% amplification of warming this century.
- The four feedbacks studied are thawing Arctic permafrost releasing CO2 and methane, wetlands emitting more methane as warmer water holds less gas, ponds and lakes releasing additional methane, and more frequent and intense wildfires driven by hotter, drier conditions.
- Even in a scenario where human emissions begin declining immediately, the feedbacks still add 0.2°C of warming this century; if emissions only decline after 2050, the feedbacks add an average of 0.4°C, because of a lag between emissions and temperature impact.
- Tim Lenton at the University of Exeter, who was not involved in the study, said the findings mean governments will need to invest more in flood barriers, drought-resistant crops, and early-warning systems for climate tipping points.
- The UN said last week that humanity will fail to meet the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C goal and that the world must now focus on limiting overshoot through carbon dioxide removal, including tree planting, machine-based CO2 filtering, and ocean carbon-uptake interventions.
- Earth has already heated by almost 1.4°C versus pre-industrial levels, and August was the joint hottest month ever observed, with heatwaves killing at least 35,000 people in Europe and contributing to record wildfires near Bordeaux in France and Madrid in Spain.
Why it matters: Schädel warns these natural feedback emissions are excluded from carbon budgets, meaning governments are planning for the wrong future. Even with immediate emissions cuts, an additional 0.2°C of warming is already locked in by century's end, raising the stakes for adaptation spending and carbon-removal investment that the UN itself flagged as scientifically and economically uncertain.
Ask SkimNews
