Natural feedbacks will warm world an extra 20 per cent this century — SkimNews
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- Christina Schädel at Woodwell Climate Research Center and colleagues modeled four natural feedbacks — thawing Arctic permafrost, wetlands, ponds and lakes, and increased wildfires — and found they will add 0.2°C to 0.4°C of warming by 2100, amplifying projected warming by 20 to 30 percent.
- Schädel said these ecosystem emissions are "left out of carbon budgets," meaning policymakers are currently "planning for the wrong future" and adapting to the wrong targets.
- Even in a scenario where human emissions begin declining today, the four feedbacks still add 0.2°C of extra warming this century; if emissions only decline after 2050, feedbacks add an average of 0.4°C.
- Tim Lenton at the University of Exeter, not involved in the study, warned the overshoot of 1.5°C "may go higher than we hoped," requiring more adaptation measures like flood barriers, drought-resistant crops, and early-warning systems for climate tipping points.
- Earth has already warmed nearly 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels, August tied as the joint hottest month ever observed, and the UN said last week humanity will fail the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C goal.
- The study was published in Environmental Research Letters (DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ae9e24).
Why it matters: Government carbon budgets used to set emissions targets currently exclude these natural feedbacks, meaning the 1.5°C overshoot will be deeper than models project — forcing greater near-term investment in adaptation like flood defenses and drought-resistant crops, per Lenton.
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