Climate ‘feedback loops’ could worsen global warming by 30%, study finds — SkimNews
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- Sam Abernethy of Spark Climate Solutions led research published in Environmental Research Letters concluding natural sources — thawing permafrost, fiercer wildfires, warming wetlands and lakes — could amplify global heating by 20% to 30% by end of century.
- The natural-source emissions would add an estimated 0.2°C to 0.4°C to the global average by 2100, but Abernethy said this "hidden multiplier" is "missing from the models guiding climate policy" and means remaining carbon budgets are smaller than projected.
- Rob Jackson, a Stanford University scientist and co-author, said disruption of the world's carbon cycles is being observed in "real time," calling the results "a wake-up call" that must shape the next generation of climate policies.
- Even under the most optimistic emissions-cut scenario, natural sources will still add 0.2°C; under a higher-emissions pathway the figure doubles to 0.4°C, meaning the spread between best and worst case is itself a 0.2°C gap.
- The United Nations last week conceded the 1.5°C threshold will be breached within years, while current government policies track a 2.6°C rise by century's end according to Climate Action Tracker.
- Bill Ripple, an Oregon State University ecologist not involved in the paper, called the findings "important" and said they show why "every fraction of a degree matters," as warming triggers further natural emissions.
Why it matters: Climate models guiding global policy are underestimating warming by 0.2-0.4°C because they exclude permafrost, wetland, wildfire and lake feedback loops — meaning the world's remaining carbon budget is smaller than official projections suggest. The study makes rapid fossil fuel cuts more urgent, since each additional fraction of warming triggers further natural emissions.
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