SportsLine Model Names Top 2026 Fantasy Football Busts
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- SportsLine's model simulated the 2026 NFL season 10,000 times after correctly predicting Terry McLaurin's career-low 2025 production of 582 receiving yards and 3 TDs despite a top-50 ADP the prior year.
- David Montgomery is flagged as a bust at an ADP around pick No. 51, with the model ranking him in the same tier as later-round backs Jaylen Warren, Jadarian Price, and 10th-rounder Kenneth Gainwell.
- Montgomery is expected to split Texans backfield snaps with Woody Marks, who posted more than 900 scrimmage yards as a rookie, limiting Montgomery's volume in a less explosive offense than Detroit's.
- James Cook, going at ADP around No. 10 overall as the fifth running back off the board, is ranked just RB No. 10 by the model — behind Derrick Henry and Chase Brown — with a suggested draft range of late-second to third round.
- The model cites Cook's elevated fumble rate last season and Josh Allen's touchdown-vulturing tendency in Buffalo's offense as key reasons to fade him.
- SportsLine is also fading one of the first six receivers off draft boards, ranking him barely inside the top 10 at his position and calling him one of the biggest busts in the league this year.
- Past model hits include flagging A.J. Brown as a 2020 sleeper, Jonathan Taylor's 2021 breakout, C.J. Stroud's 2024 step back, and Derrick Henry's 2019 resurgence.
Why it matters: Fantasy drafters trusting consensus ADP could overpay for Montgomery in Rounds 4-5 and Cook in the late first, while SportsLine also tags a top-six wide receiver as a fade — meaning two early-round assets and a high-end WR carry significant risk in a year the source explicitly frames as one where 'avoiding busts is one of the best ways to win a league.'
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