2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship odds, picks: Surprising predictions by model that's nailed 17 majors
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- Scottie Scheffler opens as the +500 favorite to win the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship, with Rory McIlroy (+1300) and Xander Schauffele (+2000) next in line per FanDuel Sportsbook.
- The 2026 FedEx Cup Playoffs begin Thursday at TPC Southwind in Memphis with the top 70 players in the field, a $20 million purse, and quadrupled FedEx Cup points; the top 50 advance to the BMW Championship.
- SportsLine's model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, simulated the tournament 10,000 times and has correctly called 17 majors, including the 2026 Masters — its fifth consecutive Masters.
- The model surprisingly fades Xander Schauffele despite his third-shortest odds, projecting him outside the top 10 after a lone top-10 finish (T2 at the Rocket Classic) since May and zero wins on the 2026 PGA Tour schedule.
- Sam Burns is the model's top-3 contender at +2200, backed by T7-or-better finishes at the Masters, Memorial, U.S. Open, and Open Championship this year, plus a tour-best third in strokes gained: putting and 12th in strokes gained: total.
- The model is also targeting a longshot listed at +3000 or higher to make a strong leaderboard run.
Why it matters: With quadrupled FedEx Cup points and a $20 million purse reshaping the standings in a single no-cut event, the model's contrarian fade of Schauffele — the third-favorite — and endorsement of Burns at 22-to-1 give bettors a data-backed counter to the public board. Burns' elite putting metrics at TPC Southwind specifically support the model's top-3 projection.
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