2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship odds, picks: Surprising predictions by model that's nailed 17 majors
Get the Sports newsletter
Daily sports — scores, transfers, the storylines from the leagues you actually follow. Free.
- FedEx St. Jude Championship opens the 2026 FedEx Cup Playoffs Thursday at TPC Southwind in Memphis, with the top 70 players competing for a $20 million purse and quadrupled FedEx Cup points, and the top 50 advancing to the BMW Championship.
- Scottie Scheffler sits atop both the FedEx Cup points standings and the FanDuel odds board at +500, followed by Rory McIlroy (+1300) and Xander Schauffele (+2000).
- Xander Schauffele is the model's biggest fade despite third-lowest odds, projected outside the top 10; Schauffele finished second at the recent Rocket Classic but has no other top-10s since May and remains winless on the 2026 PGA Tour.
- Sam Burns at +2200 is the model's top-3 pick, buoyed by a 12th-ranked strokes gained: total and third-ranked strokes gained: putting, plus top-7 finishes at the Masters, Memorial, U.S. Open and Open Championship this year.
- SportsLine's model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has simulated every PGA Tour event 10,000 times and has correctly predicted 17 majors entering the weekend, including the 2026 Masters (its fifth straight) plus last year's PGA Championship and Open Championship.
- Hideki Matsuyama, Tommy Fleetwood and Cameron Young are tied with Burns at +2200, while the model is also targeting a longshot north of +3000 to make a surprise leaderboard run.
Why it matters: With $20 million on the line and FedEx Cup points quadrupled, this no-cut event can dramatically reshuffle the standings heading into the BMW Championship, and bettors leaning on Schauffele at short odds are betting against a model that has hit 17 majors. Burns' statistical profile (3rd in SG: putting, 12th in SG: total) offers a concrete contrarian case against the public board.
Ask SkimNews
