China Cuts Warplane Sorties Near Taiwan, Activity Rebounds
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- China's PLA reduced daily fighter plane sorties near Taiwan to as few as two on some days since March 7, down from the usual dozen or more per day before March, according to Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense.
- Analysts floated competing explanations for the three-week drop, including Beijing's desire not to anger Trump before an expected late April Trump-Xi summit, China's Two Sessions political meetings (March 4-11), and the January removal of two top generals including a senior vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission.
- Denny Roy of the East-West Center think tank dismissed the cut as a "concession" to Trump, arguing Beijing would want to remind Washington that Taiwan tensions are high and push the US to reduce support for Taipei.
- Jet fuel prices have risen more than 80% during the Middle East conflict, but analyst Huang Chung-ting of INDSR said Beijing can absorb the cost given the absence of democratic political pressure to scale back.
- PLA activity rebounded sharply by late March, with Taiwan's defense ministry logging 28 sorties in the 24 hours ending 6 a.m. Tuesday, 36 by Wednesday morning, and 12 by Thursday — all three days ending March 19.
- Brian Hioe of Nottingham's Taiwan Research Hub cautioned against interpreting the resumption as "large-scale military exercises," while Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council deputy minister Shen Yu-chung conceded "we fear that only China would know" the real reason for the lull.
Why it matters: The 80%+ jet fuel price spike is a real cost, but analysts say Beijing can absorb it without democratic accountability — meaning fuel alone doesn't explain the lull. Brian Hioe's warning against reading the resumption as escalation matters because misjudging routine activity in the 160-km-wide Taiwan Strait could trigger the very U.S. response Beijing is trying to avoid ahead of the Trump-Xi summit.
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