Michigan 1.5-Point Favorite Over Arizona in 2026 Final Four
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- Michigan (35-3) meets Arizona (36-2) in the 2026 Final Four on April 4 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, with tipoff set for 8:49 p.m. ET on TBS, and a national championship game berth on the line.
- Arizona advanced as West Region champion with a 79-64 win over Purdue, while Michigan cruised past Tennessee 95-62 as the Midwest Region champion; Arizona won the Big 12 regular season (16-2) and conference tournament, and Michigan took the Big Ten at 19-1.
- Michigan is a 1.5-point favorite (Michigan -1.5, +102) with the over/under set at 157.5 points and a near-even moneyline (Michigan -111, Arizona -109).
- SportsLine's Projection Model is picking the Under on 157.5, projecting 153 combined points with the Under clearing in 58% of 10,000 simulations, and is on an 11-1 run on top-rated CBB over/under picks dating back to last season.
- The model projects Yaxel Lendeborg to lead Michigan with 16.7 points and Brayden Burries to lead Arizona with 15 points, with both teams showing just three players in double figures in the simulation.
- The Under has hit in 22 of 38 Michigan games, two of the last three Arizona games, and nine of the last 13 Michigan games against teams averaging 72 or more points.
Why it matters: With a national championship game berth at stake, the razor-thin 1.5-point spread signals oddsmakers see this as a coin flip between two 35-win programs. Bettors leaning on SportsLine's 11-1 over/under run get a model projection of 153 combined points — nearly five below the posted total — and a lean on one side of the spread that hit more than half the time in 10,000 simulations.
