Iran War Outcome Splits Gulf Into Rival Coalitions
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- Trump announced on June 14 the end of the Iran war and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but the negotiated settlement leaves Iran's nuclear program, ballistic missiles, and regional proxy support unresolved and the regime still in power, a strategic failure by the article's assessment.
- Saudi Arabia signed a mutual defense pact with nuclear-armed Pakistan in late 2025 stipulating that 'any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both,' and Pakistan has since deployed 13,000 troops and a squadron of fighter jets to the kingdom, positioning Riyadh at the center of a coalition Washington did not build.
- The United Arab Emirates deepened defense and intelligence cooperation with Israel and the United States after Israel offered air defense assistance during Iranian strikes and Egypt failed to provide immediate help, anchoring the rival pro-Israel 'Abrahamic coalition' that includes Greece and India.
- Israel conducted a September 2025 strike in Qatar that killed one Qatari security force member and five Hamas negotiators — the first-ever Israeli strike on a Gulf Cooperation Council member — and Washington did nothing in response, a turning point for Saudi Arabia's view of both Israel and US reliability.
- Middle Eastern states are coalescing into two opposing blocs: the Abrahamic coalition (Israel, UAE, with Greece and India) and an Islamic coalition (Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan, and increasingly Egypt), both increasingly viewing deep dependence on Washington as a liability and seeking greater local agency.
- China is positioning itself to play a greater postwar role in the Middle East without assuming the burdens of leadership Washington once bore, while the regional realignment is a 'harbinger' for US partnerships from East Asia to Europe to Latin America, the article argues.
Why it matters: The war's outcome is already rewriting Gulf security architecture: a Saudi-Pakistan mutual defense pact with 13,000 Pakistani troops deployed, the first-ever Israeli strike on a GCC member going unanswered by Washington, and a widening Saudi-UAE split mean the US has lost its monopoly as Middle East security broker — with governments from East Asia to Latin America drawing similar conclusions about US reliability.
