Lions, Chargers to Super Bowl in ESPN FPI Simulation — SkimNews
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- The Lions advanced to the Super Bowl in this simulation, beating the Rams 20-17 in the NFC Championship behind Aidan Hutchinson — named Defensive Player of the Year — and two Jared Goff-to-Amon-Ra St. Brown touchdown connections.
- The Chargers upset the top-seeded Bills 10-7 in the AFC Championship, as Josh Allen committed two fumbles and an interception (picked by Tarheeb Still), sending Jim Harbaugh to his first Super Bowl in 14 years.
- The Bears and Texans both finished 6-11 despite being trendy preseason picks, with Caleb Williams still struggling with accuracy in Year 2 under Ben Johnson and Houston dropping their final eight games after a 6-3 start.
- The Cowboys won the NFC East at a mediocre 9-8 — the worst record among division winners — upset the defending champion Seahawks 31-19 in the wild card, then lost 27-20 to the Lions in the divisional round.
- The Chiefs reclaimed the AFC West at 12-5 as the No. 2 seed, with Patrick Mahomes returning to top-five QBR but not MVP form; Kansas City was bounced 27-24 by the Chargers at Arrowhead in the divisional round.
- The Jets finished 2-15 to earn the No. 1 pick in the 2027 draft — the article floats Arch Manning, Dante Moore, CJ Carr, Darian Mensah, Drew Mestemaker, and Trinidad Chambliss as candidates — with New York holding three first-round picks.
- The Colts reversed their 2025 late-season collapse by reaching the playoffs and stunning the Jaguars 18-12 in the wild card, before being crushed 55-23 by top-seeded Buffalo in the divisional round.
Why it matters: In this FPI simulation, two of the preseason's trendy Super Bowl picks — the Bears and Texans — both cratered to 6-11 finishes, while the Jets landed the No. 1 overall pick at 2-15. The result underscores how FPI's preseason expectations don't translate to floor outcomes, with the simulation scattering eight teams at or below .500 and elevating the Chargers to a Super Bowl despite Kansas City reclaiming the AFC West.
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