2026 Open Championship odds, picks: Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy predictions by model that nailed 17 majors
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- Scheffler and McIlroy sit as +750 co-favorites, with Scheffler seeking to become the first back-to-back Open champion since Tiger Woods in 2005-06 after top-25 finishes in all five of his Open starts.
- Wyndham Clark (+3300), despite his recent U.S. Open success, is projected by the model to 'stumble big time' based on his ranking of 83rd in driving accuracy and 65th in greens in regulation.
- McIlroy aims to become the 12th golfer with seven major championships and tie Harry Vardon for the most by a British golfer, with his 2017 fourth-place finish at Royal Birkdale cited as promising course history.
- Scheffler leads the PGA Tour in strokes gained: total, scoring average and birdie average, but ranks just 34th in Round 1 scoring after leading the category the previous three seasons.
- Royal Birkdale features over 100 bunkers across a short layout where driving distance is less of a factor, with Jordan Spieth at +6000 recalling his 2017 win at the course.
Why it matters: With Americans having swept the last three Opens and Scheffler co-favored at +750 alongside McIlroy, bettors face a narrow favorite tier — and the model's fading of Clark at 33-1 despite his major pedigree illustrates how course-fit metrics (driving accuracy, GIR) weigh heavier than star power at Birkdale's 100+ bunker layout.
