2026 Open Championship odds, picks: Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy predictions by model that nailed 17 majors
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- Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy are co-favorites at +700 in the 2026 Open Championship odds, with Tommy Fleetwood (+1400) and Matt Fitzpatrick (+1400) rounding out the top four per FanDuel.
- Scheffler could become the first back-to-back Open champion since Tiger Woods (2005-06); he has top-25 finishes in all five Open starts but has come up short in his last 13 events of 2026, and now ranks 34th in Round 1 scoring after leading the tour the prior three seasons.
- McIlroy, the last Brit to win The Open (2014), placed fourth when Royal Birkdale hosted in 2017; a seventh major title would tie him with Harry Vardon for the most by any British golfer.
- Wyndham Clark (+2700) is projected to 'stumble big time' and barely crack the top 25 — the model cites his 83rd-ranked driving accuracy, 65th in greens in regulation, and just one top-20 finish across 13 starts at the other three majors.
- Jordan Spieth, who won The Open the last time Royal Birkdale hosted in 2017, is a +5500 longshot.
- Royal Birkdale features over 100 bunkers across one of the 10 shortest courses on the 2026 PGA Tour schedule, making precision more critical than driving distance.
- SportsLine's proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has nailed 17 majors entering the weekend — including the 2026 Masters (its fifth straight), the 2025 PGA Championship and the 2025 Open Championship.
Why it matters: With Scheffler chasing back-to-back titles and McIlroy bidding to tie Vardon's British major record, the model's clearest call is to fade Wyndham Clark (+2700) — a two-time U.S. Open winner ranked 83rd in driving accuracy — at a Royal Birkdale layout where 100+ bunkers reward precision over length.
