Carbon pollution has fuelled ‘massive expansion’ of marine heatwaves in Europe, study finds
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- World Weather Attribution found carbon pollution fuelled a "massive expansion" of marine heatwaves across European seas in 2026, with some waters recording temperatures 6°C higher than normal and the hottest fortnights deemed "virtually impossible" in a preindustrial climate in three of four sea regions studied.
- Climate breakdown caused about two-thirds of observed excess heat, warming waters by 2°C in the Mediterranean, 1.4°C in the Bay of Biscay and Iberian Peninsula, and 1.3°C around Ireland and the Channel, the rapid analysis found.
- Marine heatwaves hit 90% of the Bay of Biscay and Iberian coast region and 80% of the western Mediterranean in 2026 — figures that would be roughly half as large without anthropogenic warming.
- Removing climate change effects from the models cut expected heatwave coverage from 70% to 9% in the eastern Mediterranean and from 80% to 30% in the Celtic region that surrounds the British Isles.
- Separate January research cited in the piece found marine heatwaves intensify extreme rainfall on land by 20–30%, with 5–25% of coastal extreme rainfall events accompanied by a nearby marine heatwave.
- Claire Bergin of Maynooth University warned that the underwater impacts — death of corals and macroalgae, disruption of fish and seabird populations — could "completely reshape ecosystems that coastal communities rely on for food and income."
- Mohamed Adow, director of Power Shift Africa, criticised the continent's continued fossil fuel expansion, saying Europe "cannot acknowledge the science with one hand while continuing to expand fossil fuels with the other."
Why it matters: Europe is the fastest-warming continent, and marine heatwaves now blanket 80–90% of key sea regions — an area that would roughly halve without fossil-fuel-driven warming. Coastal ecosystems, fisheries, and even extreme rainfall on land (intensified 20–30% by marine heatwaves) are already absorbing the cost, while national governments keep approving new oil and gas projects that scientists say lock in further damage.
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