Canadian Banks Restrict Staff Prediction Market Bets
Get the Finance newsletter
Daily finance — markets, central banks, M&A, the prints that move money. Free.
- RBC, Scotiabank, TD, National Bank, and Manulife have all updated employee policies restricting prediction market wagers after prediction exchanges launched in Canada
- RBC bars employees subject to its personal trading policies from placing any prediction market bets, while Scotiabank's policy prohibits speculating on financial markets, indexes, or companies
- TD Bank issued a reminder earlier this year reinforcing how confidentiality and code of conduct requirements apply to prediction markets
- Manulife's code of business conduct includes a dedicated "Guidance Related to Prediction Market Activity" section prohibiting bets on outcomes tied to information known through their relationship with the insurer
- National Bank restricted prediction market trading specifically for employees in its capital markets division, while BMO and CIBC said their codes of conduct address use of non-public information
- The Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization has authorized only two members — Wealthsimple (via a Kalshi partnership) and Interactive Brokers — to offer event contracts, limited to economic forecasts, environment forecasts, and financial indicators
- The Canadian measures mirror similar U.S. moves after a Google software engineer and a U.S. Army soldier were accused of profiting from confidential information on prediction markets
Why it matters: The banks are closing a potential insider-trading loophole before regulators define the rules — with only Wealthsimple and Interactive Brokers authorized to offer these products in Canada, the five largest institutions are treating prediction markets as functionally off-limits to staff with access to non-public financial information on covered events like Bank of Canada rate decisions.
Ask SkimNews
