Ex‑diplomat says US‑Israel pressure fuels Iran stalemate
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- U.S. has repeatedly refused to engage Iranian moderates since the 1979 Revolution, rejecting overtures such as a Conoco contract in the 1990s and a 2003 letter offering to discuss all bilateral issues.
- Great powers historically viewed Iran as a weak buffer rather than an essential ally, exemplified by Britain's dismissal of Iran as unworthy of colonization and the U.S.'s limited support for Iranian industrialization.
- Pro‑Israel lobbying in Washington, especially under Clinton and Bush, pushed U.S. policy toward confronting Iran, with neoconservatives advocating the 2003 Iraq invasion and later urging force against Tehran.
- Israel has cultivated ties with Azerbaijan to exploit ethnic divisions like South Azerbaijan within Iran, but these efforts have not sparked any successful uprisings against Tehran.
- Russia opposes U.S.–Iran reconciliation, sees a strong Iran as a rival in the Caucasus and Central Asia, and benefits from Iran's isolation, which distracts the U.S. and hurts its economy.
- Iran remains territorially intact despite external pressures, as its ethnic minorities lack the resources to form viable independent entities, contrary to claims that Iran is on the brink of fragmentation.
Why it matters: The U.S.’s persistent refusal to negotiate with Iranian moderates, amplified by pro‑Israel lobbying, has bolstered Tehran’s hardliners, while Russia capitalizes on Iran’s isolation to weaken U.S. influence in the region. This dynamic entrenches the stalemate and shifts strategic leverage toward Moscow.
