Trump: '50/50' on Iran Deal, Decision by Sunday
SkimNews Take
The stated 50/50 chance suggests a deal is contingent on last-minute concessions rather than a pre-determined outcome, creating leverage in the ongoing negotiations.
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- Trump told Axios the odds of a "good" Iran deal versus resuming the war are a "solid 50/50," and said he would meet negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, joined by Vice President Vance, on Saturday to review Iran's latest response ahead of a Sunday decision.
- Pakistan's Field Marshal Asim Munir left Tehran on Saturday after mediating with top Iranian officials, with Pakistan citing "encouraging progress toward a final understanding" but no finalized deal; the new draft under review emerged from those Iran-Pakistan talks.
- Iran's foreign ministry said the U.S. and Iran are in the final stage of discussions on an MOU to end the war, covering gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, lifting the U.S. blockade, and releasing frozen Iranian funds, to be followed by 30-60 days of detailed negotiations.
- Trump said he would only accept a deal addressing uranium enrichment and the fate of Iran's existing stockpile — issues the source notes are unlikely to be resolved in detail under the proposed MOU, leaving a gap between what Trump demands and what the memo delivers.
- Prime Minister Netanyahu is "highly concerned" about the deal under discussion and has urged Trump to launch another round of strikes, per Israeli officials; Trump described Netanyahu as "torn" and rejected the idea that the Israeli leader was "worried" Trump would make an unfavorable deal.
- Sen. Lindsey Graham said some regional leaders urge Trump to strike Iran to weaken the regime, while others and some of Trump's top advisers urge taking the deal on the table, citing concerns that Iran can destroy substantial Gulf oil operations and that the Strait of Hormuz can't be secured from Iranian influence.
- Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Saturday there has been "some progress" and "there might be some news later today," reiterating that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon, must surrender its enriched uranium, and must fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz "without tolls."
Why it matters: A Sunday decision forces a binary choice: a peace memo that kicks the hardest issues — enrichment, Iran's stockpile, Strait of Hormuz tolls — to a 30-60 day follow-up, or renewed strikes that Graham and regional voices warn could trigger Iranian retaliation against Gulf oil infrastructure. Netanyahu is publicly lobbying against the deal, while mediators from Pakistan, Egypt, Qatar, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia are trying to close the gap by Saturday night.
