Bitcoin Jumps on Cool PCE Inflation Data as Bond Yields Hit 20-Year Highs — SkimNews
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- PCE inflation came in below expectations in August: core PCE rose 3.0% year over year versus 3.3% forecast, and headline PCE hit 3.4% versus 3.7% expected, with monthly gains of 0.2% and 0.3% respectively
- Bitcoin popped above $85,000 to a high of $85,598.94 before easing to $84,376.09, up 0.9% on the day, keeping it inside the $82,600–$85,600 band it has held for the past week
- CME's FedWatch tool now prices a 62% chance the Fed holds rates in October and a 37% chance of a 25-basis-point hike, down from earlier expectations that favored tightening
- The 10-year Treasury yield hit approximately 5.25%, its highest level since 2002, while the S&P 500 fell 0.2%, the Dow dropped 0.3%, and the Nasdaq slipped 0.1%
- Myriad prediction market traders put just 7% odds on Bitcoin topping its $126,199 all-time high before 2027, implying roughly a 50% rally would be needed in three months
- Technical indicators lean bullish but stalled: ADX at 41.9 confirms a strong trend, RSI at 63.4 leaves room for more upside, and BTC sits about 8% above its 50-day EMA of $77,809.88
- Consumer confidence hit a 12-year low and August job openings came in at 7.08 million, below forecasts, while Brent crude briefly topped $100 before easing to $96.16 amid U.S.-Iran tensions around the Strait of Hormuz
Why it matters: Cool PCE data reframed the October Fed meeting as more likely a hold than a hike, handing risk assets like Bitcoin a near-term catalyst — yet the macro backdrop is deteriorating, with consumer confidence at a 12-year low, job openings missing forecasts at 7.08 million, and the S&P 500 falling even as crypto held. Bitcoin's stalled breakout at $85,599 leaves it stuck in a tight $82,600–$85,600 band, and Myriad traders give it just 7% odds of a new all-time high before 2027.
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